Slightly bearish bias ahead of the ECB and flash PMIs; consolidating 1.1427-1.1445. Fade rallies in 1.1460-1.1475, target 1.1400, stop above 1.1505; a 1H close below 1.1420 targets 1.1380/1.1355. A close above 1.1500 invalidates toward 1.1578. | Pair closed near 1.1415 after stalling at 1.1448, compressed inside the July range. Fade rallies into 1.1445-1.1460 supply, targeting 1.1405, stop above 1.1485. A daily close below 1.1355 extends the move toward 1.1230; a close above 1.1480 neutralizes the bearish skew. | Neutral/bearish tilt ahead of ECB; failure to clear the 200-period H4 SMA (1.1480-1.1485) keeps the path lower. Fade exhaustion on retests of 1.1450-1.1480 with stops above 1.1500; a clean H4 close below 1.1390 targets the 1.1355 pivot zone. Daily close above 1.1485 invalidates toward 1.1578.