Bearish bias, moderate-to-high conviction, on hawkish Fed repricing (>48% Sept hike odds priced) and Middle East risk premium. Optimal short entries on intraday pullbacks into 1.1445-1.1450, targeting a move back through the daily lows; invalidation above 1.1465. | Neutral bias with bearish skew ahead of UoM data; price capped under the 1.1465 pivot. Fade R1: exhaustion on M5/M15 spikes into 1.1465-1.1470 targeting 1.1440. Breakout play: a clean hourly close below 1.1435 opens a drive down to 1.1405-1.1400.